The thundering wave of democratic change sweeping across the Middle East has empowered Islamists, a development often couched in "told you so" tones by some commentators and politicians. But an Islamist is not an Islamist is not an Islamist. Like most political ideologies, there are shades - sometimes just gray, at other times, more starkly black and white - between the various groups now giving voice to their long-stifled political rights.
This vibrant, boisterous awakening is loudest in Egypt, the Arab world's most populous state and the birthplace of some of Islam's most influential modern thinkers, including Hassan el-Banna, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, and Seyyid Qutb, considered by some the father of modern Islamic fundamentalism - and an inspiration to al-Qaeda. (See photos of Egypt's outlawed brotherhood.)
A plethora of Islamist political forces have emerged in Egypt - from hardcore Salafists (who espouse a strict, literalist reading of the Koran) to more moderate, inclusive bodies. Although the revised political party law issued by Egypt's military rulers, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), prohibits the establishment of parties based on "religion, geography or race," the new organizations have dodged that restriction by forming "civil" groups with Islamic frames of reference, like the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party. To date, SCAF has denied only one licensing application, submitted by the formerly militant group Al-Gamaa al-Islamiya, which waged an insurgency against the Egyptian state for decades until the mid-1990s.
As the political jockeying begins for staggered elections in the lower house of Parliament that kick off on Nov. 28, it's unclear if the various Islamist groups will compete against one other, or coalesce to take on the secular, liberal parties. (A three-round election for the upper house will be held from Jan. 29 to March 11.) The powerful Brotherhood recently said it will vie for 40% of the lower assembly, down from an earlier figure of 50% which was up from the 30% suggested by spokesman Essam el-Erian back in March. (Erian is now the vice-president of Freedom and Justice.)
The party now says it does not want a majority on its own, but hopes the Democratic Coalition it has joined (a loose alliance of more than 30 political groups including the liberal Wafd Party), will take the lion's share of the assembly. Still, while it seeks to win seats in the house, the Brotherhood's own house is exhibiting signs of division, with members splintering away from what was for decades one of the best organized, although subdued, political forces of any shade during Hosni Mubarak's dictatorship. (Read about Egyptian Christian and Muslim conflict after the revolution.)
The Brotherhood's breakaways are mainly disaffected youth. Some are uneasy with their elders' comfortable ties with the ruling military council; others more closely identify themselves with other groups. (For example, there are at least four new parties formed by Salafis.)
Still others, like Mohammad Othman, say the party doesn't represent them any more. Othman, 30, was a member of the party for 13 years, but left it a few months after Mubarak was toppled. He participated in the mammoth demonstrations in the capital's Tahrir Square, but says it soon became clear to him that the Brotherhood wasn't interested in real change. "It has forgotten about the more important concerns of the street, it's too busy creating deals with the ruling military council. I think it has betrayed the revolution," he says. "The Ikhwan [Brothers] talk about reforms, they aren't interested in real change on the Egyptian street." Othman says that many of his friends have also left the party, for similar reasons.
Read about how the Egyptian uprising changed the brotherhood.
Erian is quick to brush off the defections. He says they are small in number, unorganized and don't pose a threat. "We are not worried about such things because it is an ordinary thing that some people will separate," he says. "We will wait to see what their future is, if they form parties and how they go ahead." Those who have left the party will have a lot of catching up to do if they want to compete with the Brotherhood, especially in its capacity as a civil society organization, a role that wins it vast support on the ground - support it can cash into political capital.
Still, not all of the Brotherhood's breakaways are political neophytes, and if, as Erian says, the party isn't worried about dissidents, then why did it reportedly expel members who had attended a conference by presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a rebel from the Islamist group? Erian denies the account, published in several Egyptian newspapers, and says that the members were "criticized, only criticized, not punished at all" for breaking party ranks and attending the event organized by Aboul Fotouh. (Read about President's Obama thoughts of the Muslim Brotherhood.)
Aboul Fotouh was a leading figure in the Brotherhood for decades, a popular reformist, who was expelled this summer for defying the party's decision not to enter the presidential race. He is now running for president, and drawing a lot of support from young, reform-minded Islamists like Ibrahim el-Houdaiby, 28, an independent who has emerged as one of the Brotherhood's most outspoken critics.
Houdaiby doesn't like to flaunt his family's storied history in the Brotherhood, but it is a pedigree that affords him a unique platform. Erudite, articulate and exceedingly modest, his great grandfather, Hassan el-Houdaiby, was the Brotherhood's second supreme guide after Banna's assassination in 1948. His grandfather was its sixth, serving between 2002 to 2004. "The Brotherhood is always occupied with the religious question, of proving their religious moderation, so that keeps them unfocused on different matters," Houdaiby says. "I have a lot of hope in somebody like Aboul Fotouh, particularly because of that. If you look at his political stances, you could never understand them as the political stances of an Islamist, and stop there. He's confident enough to move beyond the question of religion."
Houdaiby says that Aboul Fotouh appeals to Egyptian concerns about finding jobs, security, the rising cost of living and eliminating corruption. They are not focused on on the question of religious identity, like many Islamist politicians. A survey by the Egyptian Cabinet's Information and Decision Support Center published on Sunday, said that a whopping 65% of respondents would not even consider following a cleric's endorsement of a political candidate. Although sample size and other statistics about the survey were not provided, it's a fact from Islamabad to Cairo that influence from the pulpit doesn't necessarily translate into political power on the streets or in parliament. Islamic identity only becomes a powerful, unifying political force when it is threatened, as it was during the Mubarak years. That's why, as Houdaiby says, the Brotherhood, which "stood united for 80 years in the context of oppression, cannot stand in the context of freedom." (Read about dissent within the Muslim Brotherhood.)
Houdaiby quit the party in 2008, for ideological reasons. There are four schools inside the Brotherhood, he says: Hassan el-Banna's, Salafists, the Qutbis, and the traditional Azhari school, promulgated by the venerable Al-Azhar institute in Cairo, Sunni Islam's foremost seat of learning. Houdaiby sympathies are for the Azhari school. The Brotherhood, he says, is now dominated by Qutbis and Salafis.
Still, the various groups have far more uniting them than dividing them. Tensions may arise if several Islamist candidates from across the ideological range vie for the same electoral seats. The so-called Coordinating Body for Islamist Political Action was recently formed by young men and women hoping to avoid such a scenario by encouraging the creation of unified Islamist lists for the upcoming election. But perhaps that sorting process is better left to the ballot box. Ultimately, it is the voters who will decide if an Islamist is an Islamist is an Islamist - and whether voting for one will make a big enough difference to their political and economic future.
Read about what's so scary about Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
See photos of Islam's soft revolution.
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