Thursday, October 4, 2012

Turkey to stay out of military conflict ? expert: Voice of Russia

I wouldn?t dramatize that incident. Turkey has been very active in the Syrian conflict, considered its attitude towards Syria, so such incidents can?t be ruled out in the future. But the question is: what aftermath will they have??Take, for instance, this artillery attack. I was relieved to see that Turkey immediately turned to NATO and the United Nations. We can now expect them to pass a slew of condemning resolutions.?But that?s more of a limiting factor. Turkey is most likely to stay out of any military conflict, although there are forces that would benefit from triggering a regional conflict. There have been a lot of publications supporting this point, for example in the Israeli media.

Americans have said they aren?t going to lead the military operation under any circumstances. NATO has distanced itself from the conflict as well. What can pull Turkey into a war against Syria?

Tarasov: In the case of a NATO involvement, it would have set up an interim government in the occupied zones and proceeded according to the usual scenario. This didn?t work out this time. Why? Because the Syrian Army has proved to be strong. That was to be expected because initially it was preparing to stave off an Israeli strike, let alone an attack by a bunch of thugs called the Free Syrian Army or whatever. So, the army is combat-ready and security services have stayed loyal to the regime and refused to hand in Assad. Moreover, it?s for a reason that the Syrian General Staff had been conducting staff drills called ?coup? twice a month just before the conflict broke out. They were gearing up for this situation; they were ready for any turn of events. If Turkey were to launch an operation against Syria now, Iraq?s Kurdistan would strike it in the rear.

For the first time in two decades, the forces known as Kurdish militants have been engaged in proper military operations on the Turkish soil. Since troops were pulled out, gendarmes have failed to win this victory. They are now in midst of a profound political crisis. The conflict between the ruling party and the opposition has exacerbated, with the opposition suing the president, the defense minister, the foreign chief and so forth. In a nutshell, what we are seeing is a sign of a deepening crisis. In this situation, NATO isn?t interested in a war. If Turkey gets into the conflict it won?t be able to pull out of it. In that case, it will be forced to pay its full attention to this war and carry out a full-scale operation, which means Iran and the neighboring countries will join in as well. Russia and China are opposing it all. So, it?s a very complicated geopolitical combination without any exit in sight. That?s why Turkey will be held back by the West and probably by the stance of Russia and neighboring nations.

Turkey was an active proponent of decisions that would have sanctioned a military intervention in Syria without the UN approval. It was pulling at all levers including the Friends of Syria, different Islamic quartets and conferences and finally sheltered the Syrian opposition. All of that bypassed the UN resolution. Turkey showed it was open for a military involvement as long as the West was by its side. It was backed by NATO at that time. However it?s all getting more interesting now, because Turkey has suddenly begun shifting all the responsibility to UN tools. And a UN tool is basically a Security Council resolution. So, Turkey is virtually hiding behind this resolution to stay out of the conflict, while Erdogan is publicly criticizing Moscow and Beijing for their support of Damascus. So, Turkey says, yes, we are ready to fight, but where?s the resolution? They were acting different before, which means they are really being pulled into the conflict, most probably by Saudi Arabia or Qatar, who must have thrown money behind the operation against Syria. But the point is that Arab armed forces are quite weak and would lose to Syria, while the Turkish troops are fighting-fit. So they are trying to solve the Syrian problem with the financial help from the Persian Gulf by arranging a situation that would involve no NATO members or geopolitical players, while Syria and Turkey will be counting their dead. Russia and China have vetoed the resolution, which only played in the hands of Turkey. So it?s most likely that Turkey will do its best to steer clear of the conflict, although you can?t rule out sporadic clashes.

The Voice of Russia

Source: http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_10_04/Turkey-to-stay-out-of-military-conflict/

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